Population ageing, intergenerational transfers and demographic dividend in Ecuador

Abstract

Ecuador, an Andean country of about 15 million inhabitants, is moving into the final stages of a demographic transition towards high levels of live expectancy, low birth rates and an ageing population.

Whereas, fast population growth was a major expression of the demographic transition in the twentieth century, a radical re-composition of the population by age will be the main demographic feature of population change in the twenty-first century. In Ecuador, as in the rest of Latin America, demographic changes by age groups can be seen as occurring as a succession of waves as shown in figure 1. The overall transition process entails a shift from a numeric predominance of young people towards middleaged adults and ultimately to the reign of older people. The six million Ecuadorians under age 20 years in 2010 represented 40 per cent of the total population, following a peak share of 55 per cent in 1970. But people under age 20 will constitute only 20 per cent of the population at the end of the twenty-first century, yielding their status of the largest 20-year age group by the year 2040 to two older age groups: the group of 20-39 year-olds and of 40-59 year-olds. The under-20 age group is expected to be surpassed in size by the group of adults aged 60 years or over (older persons) by the year 2070. By the end of the century, older persons are expected to outnumber each of the younger 20-year age groups. By then, the 60 years or over age group will constitute about 30 per cent of the Ecuadorian population—a big jump from their 6 per cent share in 2010.